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PowrSym History

PowrSym Adequacy Studies

PowrSym is frequently used for system adequacy studies. PowrSym uses a Monte Carlo random draw method and multiple iterations to consider such uncertainties as:

  • Generating unit forced outages and deratings

  • Transmission link outages and deratings

  • Load variation due to weather events

  • Hydro inflow uncertainty

  • Fuel availability and cost uncertainty (including use of alternate fuels and fuel storage)

  • Solar and wind uncertainty

  • Uncertainty of demand side (DSR) control response

In addition to the traditional independent event Monte Carlo draws, PowrSym can consider linked events, such as:

  • Failure of a group of generating units, such as natural gas units on a common pipeline

  • Failure of a class of units, such as all nuclear units stopped over some issue.

  • Increased outages of generating units, fuels, or grid links combined with a weather event

The PowrSym outputs in adequacy mode can be expressed as an average across all iterations, by iteration, or graphically as a sorted probability curve which is usually the best way to picture the results. Some of the available outputs are:

  • Energy not served and cost penalties

  • Spinning reserve violations and cost penalties

  • Operating reserve violations and penalties

  • Emergency imports

  • DSR operation

  • Fuel use and costs

  • Emissions and cost penalties

  • Generation by type

  • Grid congestion