TVA Studies

OSA has prepared a 30 year planning dataset for the Tennessee Valley Authority from publicly available data and set up PowrSym cases for special studies. These studies are supported by various individual and organization sponsors. Individual sponsorships are available by request with no specified amount. Interested individuals and organizations should email staff@powrsym.com for additional information.

Current and planned studies are:

• Winter 2026 Peak Projections
  • Ongoing, next monthly update about October 10th.
  • Last Update is here: Winter 2026 Power Outlook for Tennessee Valley.pdf and Peak_hour.pdf
  • Monte Carlo model, 1000 draws
  • Updates include generating unit status and import availability projections
  • In December we will switch to weekly updates including weather forecast updates for next two weeks
• Impact on hourly loads and generation of increasing solar penetration, looking at FY2026, FY2030, and FY2035
  • Ongoing, first report in October
  • Show adjusted load curves and generation response for increasing solar capacity in 500mw steps.
  • Determine the levels at which system load following becomes difficult
  • Compute load carrying benefit in summer and winter
  • Preliminary results indicate TVA can utilize much higher solar input by re-optimizing hydro operation and the summer load carrying ability is significant but increased solar offers little benefit on winter peak.
• 20 year projection of consumer rates
  • Ongoing, first report in October
  • Result is a range of rates by year
  • The range is driven in early years by uncertainty on natural gas prices and nuclear unit performance
  • The range is out years is driven by new nuclear capacity construction costs
  • This study is very important to give consumers and solar equipment providers the information necessary to make informed benefit/cost analyses.
• Impact of data center loads 
  • Capacity requirements
  • Impact on the 20 year consumer rate range
  • Determine rate to be applied to the data centers to avoid consumer impacts.

  The PowrSym platform can also be used to study alternative structures for TVA should that become of interest.

   

Current project is an adequacy study for the Tennessee Valley Region for the upcoming winter. Preliminary results indicate there is a 30% chance of TVA not fully meeting the load during January. The study will be updated periodically as we approach the winter season and predictions of loads and generating unit availability improve.

Study Schedule:

• Preliminary Outlook - public release August update. See it here: August Update

• Monthly Updates - about 15th of each month

• Weekly updates will begin in mid November available to subscribers

• Email staff@powrsym.com for more info

The PowrSym database for TVA can be extended for multi-year studies. Most power system planning models compare alternatives based on net present value results. PowrSym carries the results through to electric rates allowing the interaction of consumer alternatives and rate levels. Should government choose to evaluate different structure alternatives for TVA, PowrSym will be useful to compare consumer electric rates for the alternatives.